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DATELINE: 25 January 2016
A Northeastern American Snowzilla is Global Warming in Action three weeks after a Super Polar Cyclone was set to melt the North Pole.
Around 85 million Americans today spread across the central and northeastern United States, are beginning to dig themselves out of what is generally called the fifth largest and deepest, snow-drift building blizzard ever recorded. It left over two feet on the roofs and streets of Washington DC, Philadelphia, it shut down transportation into Manhattan, New York City, and slammed the New Jersey coast with the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
Thus spake the chorus in my inbox of that litany of scientific illiteracy I’ve been compelled to answer for over a quarter of a century. To save myself and my readers from another redundant rundown of why your snowstorms are just what global warming ordered, this time around I’ll start my retort talking about snow in Thailand.
I got tagged with a series of Facebook pictures from a friend put upon my Wall that displayed happy Orientals in mountains far higher than any hills you find in Thailand playing in the snow. The source of these pictures was a magazine called The Irrawaddy, named after the main river that flows through Myanmar (Burma) out of the mountainous, snowcapped Himalayan terrain of the country’s Northeast. So, first off, these photos of frolicking Southeast Asians aren’t Thai but Burmese. Anyone who knows the physical differences between Burmese and Thai people will immediately recognize the former in these photos. This isn’t Thailand. It is a place that regularly gets snow in January. Yet it is scant evidence, vaguely perused enough for some to cherry pick as one-example evidence supporting global cooling on my Facebook page.
Here’s my answer:
***
Thanks Bill B. for the snow report coming from Thailand (correction, these are shots from Burma). It is a great example of how easy it is to grab one datum and then make a conclusion that global warming is not for real. For one thing, the regions having a dusting of snow are in the Himalayan foothills.
It snows in subtropical India too. The pictures of villages in mountainous regions of Northern Burma are at the same altitude as Shimla in India where it snows each year. Notice how everyone in the pictures is dressed for the snow. That should tell you that it isn’t so unusual.
For 25 years now, I’ve been forecasting an increased occurrence of snow events in the coming decades. As the atmosphere gets warmer, it contains more moisture. At the same time polar regions are breaking records with high temperatures, New York is buried under three feet of snow. Why? Because the Arctic jet stream in a warming world is weakening. Consider the stream of fast-paced winds in the upper atmosphere as being like a taught robe that the loss of contrast between the boundaries of the polar north and temperate zones disappearing makes that rope of winds go loose. It whips widely north and deep into the temperate south in what is called a Polar Vortex affect. As the polar jetstream weakens it also spread out, flattening from the melting north pole and bringing down the released Arctic cold south, far enough for a collision with warmer and wetter air rising off the warming oceans. Guess what you’ll get at the point of collision? Record blizzards.
The Climate Change Denial movement, financed to the tune of $900 billion a year by fossil fueled interests, declare that Global Warming has undergone a “Pause” since the soaring curve of rising world temperatures from the mid-1970s climaxed in 1998, yet ever since, seems to have flattened. Ergo, they say we’re in a cooling cycle now.
Climate scientists have exposed this “plateau” as a statistical error that has now been corrected. There was no pause. El Niños tend to bring rare cold snaps into India and Burma. We are in a super el nino event. The El Niño cycle since the so-called “Pause” 1998 has been in a cold current phase as has been Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Northern Pacific. That means the oceans have mostly absorbed much of the heat rising from global warming in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. Another place where the hot temperatures went wasn’t even considered adequately measurable until recently: rising temps in the polar regions. Presently, there are far more weather stations tracking the data and the indications are clear that the heating and melting of the Arctic did not abate after 1998.
The spikes and crescendo of record breaking years of hotter global temperatures in 2014 and 2015 into 2016 are the result of sea current cycles now entering a warmer decade-long phase. Enjoy the snow while it lasts everyone. In a decade from now, you’ll be asking me where the Global Cooling went. Most of you will not remember what I’ve written here when that happens. As Merlin in the movie Excalibur said: “For it is the Doom of men that they forget.”
***
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Speaking of “forgetting” or just not noticing, last month a very freaky weather event took place at the North Pole that almost looked like it was mimicking the movie The Day After Tomorrow. By the way, I had to laugh at the timing when a premier cable network was broadcasting Day After Tomorrow nationally last night during the great blizzard of 2016 (as it has been called).
Anyway, it is a great film and an interesting theory inspired by the writing of my friend and fellow author, Whitley Strieber with radio show host, Art Bell. They posited a sudden return of an Ice Age caused by global warming melting Greenland ice desalinizing and shutting down the great ocean currents that stabilize the climate in an instant ice age. I will consider this and other theories in the final essay of a forthcoming book that is scheduled for pre-ordering at Amazon this coming week and should be available in the first half of February. (Click on Ten Predictions 2016 and the Fire and Ice Prophecies if you want a personally-addressed notice exactly when the book is available.)
What happened at the end of December just around three weeks before the blizzards burying northeastern America and shutting down New York last night, looked a bit like the movie. It was a cyclonic storm just like what Strieber and Bell envisioned and Roland Emmerich produced and directed except for one completely 180-degree fact. It wasn’t an ice-cold hurricane but relatively speaking, the opposite.
Angela Fritz of the Washington Post reported on 30 December 2015 the following:
A powerful winter cyclone — the same storm that led to two tornado outbreaks in the United States and disastrous river flooding — has driven the North Pole to the freezing point this week, 50 degrees above average for this time of year.
From Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning, a mind-boggling pressure drop was recorded in Iceland: 54 millibars in just 18 hours. This triples the criteria for “bomb” cyclogenesis, which meteorologists use to describe a rapidly intensifying mid-latitude storm. A “bomb” cyclone is defined as dropping one millibar per hour for 24 hours.
NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center said the storm’s minimum pressure dropped to 928 millibars around 1 a.m. Eastern time, which likely places it in the top five strongest storms on record in this region.
As this storm churns north, it’s forcing warm air into the Arctic Circle. Over the North Sea, sustained winds from the south are blasting at 70 mph, and gusting to well above 100 mph, drawing heat from south to north.
The Wall Street Journal went on to report Polar stationary orbiting satellite data and surface observations depicted a vast area within the Arctic Circle in the depths of what should be polar winter, being relatively “cooked” by ice sheet melting temperatures above freezing (32 degrees Fahrenheit) and even for a brief few hours rising to 35 degrees. Well Ms. Santa Claus, put on your topless tong! If that was a normal day at the North Pole at the end of December, the temps could have been MINUS 35 degrees Fahrenheit or at least hovering around the average -20 Fahrenheit.
This press montage of the guests displays me, center right.
DATELINE: 25 January 2016
History Channel’s “Nostradamus: 21st-Century Prophecies Revealed” Reviewed
I was beginning to wonder when this re-branding of the highly popular Nostradamus documentaries—post 2012 hyped—was coming out. I filmed it in in early November 2014 at the beautiful wooden sanctuary, a place of meditation in the verdant forest grounds of the Whidbey Institute, 20 minutes from where I live.
It finally aired in the last week of December 2015 and I must say, it has some of the best production values of any of the 100-plus documentaries I’ve appeared in since 1987. I am grateful to have so much air time. I recommend you all see it.
I will be writing more in depth about this documentary in the future. Today I will share some insights inspired by a conversation struck up with Esther, a Facebook friend:
ESTHER
Heard you on coast and saw you the other day on Nostradamus 21st century prophecies-great as usual!
HOGUE
Thank you, Esther. They filmed me in a very nice light.
ESTHER
Well you are looking and sounding great- you have so much important information to give to the world- would that they’d only listen…..
HOGUE
Thank you. It is a pity that the producers went for the sensational “one-size-fits-all” theory that mainly focuses on Mario Reading’s theory that the indexing of the quatrains is some all-encompassing system of dating Nostradamus’ entire history of the future that spans 1555 and goes beyond the year 3797.
Even some of the better scholars can fall into one of Nostradamus’ traps hook, line and astrolabe. Although some of the quatrain index numbers do temporally mark the events they’re commenting upon, after 30-years’ experience with the prophecies, I understand Nostradamus’ mind to be a recepticle of an organized chaos. Patterns are there but they are random. The indexing-as-date theory that works on one verse, or a dozen verses does not work at all for another thousand verses, unless you project your own mind upon them.
Mario Reading has done a prodigious job translating and interpreting the complete works of Nostradamus, like I have. It’s a rare club. There are only four of us in the last 4.5 centuries who made a serious stab. (I do not include Henry C. Roberts in that club.): Leoni, Cheetham, Me and Reading.
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I feel sorry for Mario that he worked so hard and diligently, only to produce a huge book based on a mistaken understanding of Nostradamus’ notoriously dyslexic and chaotic mind. What I would call that fundamental mistake the star of the History Channel documentary.
Time will be the judge of what I just wrote, simply because, if Mario Reading is correct, then all his predictions for the future will be spot on or near 100 accurate.
I’ve seen this future path before. Scholars and published amateurs less deserving that Mario Reading have walked it. I recall another good scholar falling into traps like a “green language (Ovason), some code language that takes all the nebulousness out of Nostradamus’ dyslexic divination. I think also about some pretty wretched scholars who projected some all-enlightening Nostradamus Code (Philip Dunn [aka Peter Lorie] and Valerie Hewitt). Then Lorie, sans Hewitt, published a further book that put the instructions for how you decode Nostradamus’ riddles hidden in the back of the book. Strange. Wouldn’t he like to start by sharing the secret?
Some authors make an honest mistake. Some have “other” motivations. Lorie’s book made certain he predicted events beyond the first 18 months of publication. That so happens to be the minimum life span of interest for a prophecy book. In either case, when judged by time and events, whether you’re a “Lorie” full of spurious interpretations running off the road, or your aim is sincere but flawed, it is time and events that give the final Mario “Reading” its judgement.
DATELINE: 24 January 2016
Michael Bloomberg will start a Third Party Run for President if Hillary Clinton doesn’t win the Democratic Party Nomination
The wacky Year of the Monkey is still a few weeks away from officially launching a barrel of simian organ-grinding surprises from Super El Niño weather to “whether” yet another outsider might enter the presidential race. He might upend everything with a third party run he can easily fund on his own given that New Yorker and Media Mogul, Michael Bloomberg had mused about entering the race if it looks like Bernie Sanders would beat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party primaries.
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I’m on record years ago, feeling “the Bloom” as a serious third party candidate and now if too many Democrats feel “the Bern” at the polls, a third party run will be “in Bloom.” Then we’d have a three-way race with two oligarchs from New York—Trump and Bloomberg—doing battle with a Demi-Socialist New Yorker expat US Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders. Two Jews and a cherry blond sten-Trumpian, stentorian German American with a Scottish momma could run for president.
Given that the early bird catches the worm just like an early augury, catches the prophetic credibility, I will publicly post some of my prophetic musings for your consideration published in Predictions for 2008 some eight years ago. It may have been premature to factor Bloomberg a candidate then but these passages might still be active for 2016.
“Why did a black man, a woman and a Jew cross the road?” asked the chicken.
To get to the other side? I replied.
“To get to the other side of what?” asked the Chicken.
That’s what America is asking in this sea-changing presidential campaign. What road are we crossing to get to the other side of old politics as usual?
“Change” is the flavored political slogan of the day. For once the slogan has some legs. Lots of changes are coming across the road. Even a chicken can recognize that this is the first election where either a woman (Hillary Clinton) or a black man (Barack Obama) or a Jew (Michael Bloomberg) could run for president and win!
I have rewritten this chapter a half-dozen times since Christmas 2007. Now I deliver, for your perusal on 7 January 2008, a day before the New Hampshire Primary Election, a documentation of my predictions about winners and losers in the race to the US White House.
The whole world will hold its breath waiting to exhale after American’s go to the polls to elect a new president on 4 November 2008. The political direction chosen by citizens of the world’s last superpower will touch the destiny of every human being, animal and plant on the Earth — even a curious chicken — for the next 36 years.
Predictions for 2008, Chapter Twelve,
The American Presidential Elections in 2008
Please note that everything I say in the following passage is exactly what I wrote and documented on 7 January 2008 with one bracketed change. Every entry of “2008” has been changed to “2016” because what I foresaw as a potential then, hasn’t changed one iota eight years later, if Bloomberg were to run.
A major step towards a future American third party rebellion will be made in [2016]. The current Mayor of New York, former Republican, Michael Bloomberg, born of second-generation Russian and Polish Jewish American immigrants, could buck the two-party system by declaring a run for president as an independent. The future, as I will explain in the next chapter, belongs for better or worse to a new breed of self-made, visionary and powerful CEOs. Sustained change and revolution is coming from the elite, or plutocratic power brokers grown tired of a system they’ve mastered. He or she will change it from the top down.
Bloomberg has unique advantages. This multi-billionaire can finance his campaign from his own deep pockets. A run for president will cost him $500 million of his estimated 11.5 billion dollar fortune. He can jump right into campaigning, rather than waste time and energy fundraising. With such vast resources he will literally buy an army of lawyers to cut the red bureaucratic tape and simultaneously organize the petition drives to get access to the ballot in all 50 states long before the duopoly has coronated their nominees at their conventions late in the summer of [2016].
The year [2016]could experience the first serious Independent presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt went after Republican incumbent William Howard Taft in 1912. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won that election, Roosevelt came in second and Taft, third. The right man and message can start a political revolution if he can inspire a majority of independent voters, now the largest voting block of Americans, who feel disenfranchised by the current two-party system.
Mayor Bloomberg is not one of those people who would run for president just to do it. He will make his decision to run no later than March if the leading Democratic and Republican primary candidates do not galvanize the imagination and passions of the majority of independent voters. If Bloomberg does step in, watch him push the nominee of a fracturing Republican Party back into third place in the next national election.
Predictions for 2008, Chapter Twelve,
The American Presidential Elections in 2008
Some times a prophecy is wrongly timed but its details could be just what the augury ordered for a later year. The Bloomberg of 2008 will act like the same Bloomberg of 2016. He will make his momentous decision sometime in March 2016 to run or not run. I have already predicted that Bernie Sanders would strike early and big in February but face a formidable counter-attack by Camp Clinton once the primaries stray into Nevada, S. Carolina and into the deep South states up to and through Super Tuesday. We’ll all know who’s the Democrat candidate by end of March, including Bloomberg, and short of that nagging weak link of a health problem taking out Clinton, I do not see Bloomberg’s entry into the race happening. I do not see Bernie Sanders taking Clinton out of the race.
If that forecasted timeline is somehow disengaged by Sanders, look to the Bloomberg timeline foreseen from 2008 having oracular legs in 2016.
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