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DATELINE: 16 November 2016
13 and 0 Stands. Hogue explains how he correctly anticipated two alternative futures Hillary winning by Popular Vote and Trump upsetting that Victory
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This is only the second time in 48 years of presidential forecasting by the popular vote that I predicted both outcomes. The last time the popular vote was denied its due was when Al Gore beat George W. Bush in 2000. Back then on national radio shows I said, “I’m going to be absolutely right, Al Gore is going to win the presidency by a half-million votes. Equally, I’m going to be absolutely wrong!”
Here we go again. We did repeat 2000 in 2016 in an equally tight popular vote race. Hillary Clinton is your next president by the will of the majority vote of the people. The question to ask after voting is, does the will of the people matter? As long as there is the Electoral College consisting of 270 Democrat and Republican Party picked electors who are in fact the only people who vote for your presidents, can the will of the people matter?
I also predicted Donald Trump had the best chance of upsetting Clinton’s chances. I went as far as writing a book in September-October about that alternative future, published in December 2015, Trump for President-Astrological Predictions. Now we have that outcome. Trump has won and made that book’s forecasts my most accurate to date.
At the moment of publishing this article—Tuesday, 16 November 2016, 10:37 am Pacific Standard Time—Clinton has 61,782,016 votes to Trump’s 60,834,437 votes. That means 947,579 more Americans voted for her as the next president. She’s on track to exceed 1 million more votes by the time all votes are counted. (UPDATE 21 November 2016: Clinton currently holds a 1 percent popular vote lead with 1,331,095 and there’s still a lot more to count.)
I call that winning.
If this were an Olympic foot race, first place gets a gold medal. But in this ridiculous, broken democracy, we sometimes give the gold medal to the also-ran: the second place runner.
The Electoral College was established to protect the southern slave states. In 1787, the founding fathers in their Constitutional Convention held in Philadelphia decided on preventing the public from voting in our national leader. Instead, their vote would go to chosen “electors” and “they” vote for our presidents. The excuse for this cheat by law was promoted to protect smaller, less populated states from being bullied by bigger and populated ones.
OK, if having electors is such a fair idea, why didn’t they make EVERY election a vote by electors? Why do we vote for senators, legislators, governors, mayors and dogcatchers in all 50 states by popular vote and not the most important election of them all, for the president, in the same way?
Are people voting in state elections magically more intelligent than the same people voting in the national election?
If the founding fathers really fretted about smaller states needing more elector bang for their ballot, what about smaller counties inside states needing protection from the large?
Smaller states are already well protected. The founding fathers set up the US Congress into higher and lower houses based on the Roman Senate model. Your US House of Representatives consists of legislators picked by population. Your upper house of the US Senate designates two senators representing each state no matter how big or how large, or sparse the population.
If anything, little states in the US Senate are front-loaded with more power than the large and populous. For instance, sprawling states empty of people like Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, or geographically small states with modest populations, like Rhode Island or Delaware, can match the hegemon states with their many millions like California, Florida, Texas, or New York with two senators checkmating two. The little states have exactly the same power to block, or amend and pass bills sent by the House of Representatives.
Additionally, if the Electoral College actually did give more influence in picking a president, why weren’t their elector numbers doubled? What protects voters in Montana, North and South Dakota and Wyoming, each with only 3 Electors, when voting for president against California with 55, Florida with 29, Texas with 38 or New York with 29 Electoral Collegians?
You call 12 electors vs. 157 protection?
What really got the Electoral College into our constitution was a “three-fifth compromise” proposed by James Wilson and Roger Sherman, two delegates for the Constitutional Convention of 1787, as a way to counter the influence of non-slave Northern states. It allowed Southern states to count slave populations as three-fifths in total when apportioning Representatives, as well as Presidential electors and taxes.
I mean, African American men where considered chattel, property, but they were nearly human enough to be three-fifths worth of a vote.
Why not count them as almost voters?
Let’s not even mention African American women slaves being three-quarter human. Can’t count them.
What about white women?
Don’t count them either.
This mathematical scam gave southern states so much more electoral power to pick presidents that every president from Jefferson to Lincoln got into office because they either owned slaves or picked a Vice President for their ticket who owned them.
Such an ugly “compromise” had its karmic comeuppance in 1861 on the bloody battlefields of the American Civil War. This compromise was finally thrown out of the Electoral College by section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment passed in 1868. Yet the Electoral College itself remains as a blocking amendment to the people’s will picking presidents. Its karmic consequence will erupt across the streets of America perhaps paving the way for outright revolution in the years of Trump as your 270-elector picked president.
I hope that President Trump will effectively do what he needs to “win” the support of all the American people, especially the majority that didn’t vote for him. He is the candidate that long and loudly during the primary and presidential campaigns railed against the Electoral College as “stupid,” “undemocratic” and part of a “rigged election” system. How ironic that he just swung on the rigging into the White House, Tarzan style.
It’s not his fault but he could be its fixer. He could say to the majority who didn’t vote for him, “I hear you,” putting his presidency behind a movement to amend the Bill of Rights, not only ending the Electoral College but ending special interest money influence allowed by the Supreme Court ruling on Citizens United. That would go far towards unrigging the system and bringing the American people together.
Trump has the first 100 days in office to establish himself as a president for all the people by a wave of bi-partisan legislation. Otherwise, we are heading for civil upheaval the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the American Revolution and the Civil War, the latter of which was influenced by the unjustified influence of the Electoral College system.
Let not the battles of the Blue and the Gray turn into the unraveling of the American civilization in the crossfire of the Blue battling the Red in our streets.
DATELINE: 16 November 2016
Assessing Hogue’s other Presidential and US Congressional Election Day Predictions, by the Numbers
Now let’s assess my other forecasts made on Election Eve, 7 November 2016 and published before the first polls closed on 8 November.
Rather than take back the Senate, Democrats and Republican’s might find themselves—like the nation—in almost a perfectly divided Senate of 2017 with a 51-to-49 seat spread at the most or even a 50-50 seat Senate. The Republicans, I predict have the edge to gain a razor thin majority of 51 seats.
ASSESSMENT: The Republicans did keep the Senate with the divide closer than before. Looks like we’re heading for a runoff election in Louisiana between Republican John Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell after the vote was parsed out to a platoon of 13 candidates. It’s possible my predicted number will hold but only if there’s a low Republican voter turnout. I think Kennedy will win his seat by 35 percent of the next vote. I can’t call this one officially until the runoff election. We’re either ending on my predicted ratio of 51-to-49 or 52-to-48. It makes no difference. The Republican’s retain the Senate for at least two years but no one has a supermajority of 60 to get much done through large enough partisan-caucus paths. Remember how Obama got so little done with control of US Congress for his first two years. I do think Trump will do better because his cabinet will be better organized, focused and disciplined. Moreover, unlike Obama, Trump will work to bring together and strengthen his base rather than waste two years trying to woo the opposing party, like he was playing an obsessive seducer of a woman impossible to win.
The House of Representatives will remain with a Republican majority. This means gridlock is really locked in. It will be more magnified with an adversarial Republican Congress at odds with a Democrat Executive Branch than it has ever been.
ASSESSMENT: Wrong. There’s a future that won’t happen. Even though I was “right” predicting Trump could upset it. The names in the executive office may have changed; it will be Trump, not Clinton as head of the executive branch at odds with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The Democrats might gain a little more than 7 seats but this does nothing to dent the solid Republican majority.
Nevertheless, listen up members of the Republican Congress of 2017. Trump is not a Republican. He will remain a political outsider. He is an Independent at heart and I have a premonition that he’ll have more battles with conservatives in a Republican-controlled US Congress than with the Democrats. He’ll want to strengthen that base according to his open-ended political agenda and conservatives might play hard to get. This will bring great frustration to him and he may take revenge by having some success using centrist Democrats and Republicans in both houses to squeeze his legislative agenda through. He may even get Democratic support from Senator Sanders and his progressive wing of the DNC on issues they can agree on, which are surprisingly many.
Finally, since I usually provide you all with accurate accountings of the popular national vote and electoral vote, I will predict one last time, that Hillary Clinton will win the electoral vote.
ASSESSMENT: I want to apologize for this lapse and stupid prediction about the Electoral College. I broke a rule I made back in 2008: never make Electoral College predictions. Doing otherwise was motivated by exhaustion overtaking my mind and body as we finally made it to Election Day.
The truth is the opposite. My electoral college predictions are always wrong and making another stab at it only confused my readers and took their attention away from what I really do best, predict the popular vote winner.
If New Hampshire goes her way early then I could even see her win the Electoral College vote as early as 8pm Pacific Time. If Trump takes New Hampshire, Michigan too, along with Florida, then we’re in for a long night. We might still be figuring out who will win when my slotted early-morning hour-long interview on Coast to Coast AM broadcasts 1-2 am Pacific Time.
ASSESSMENT: The caveat was, “if she won New Hampshire early.” That potential didn’t happen. We were in for a long night. The second potential was a far more accurate call. Trump did gain an early lead in Michigan and won Florida early. Thus we were in for a long night with Hillary Clinton conceding to Trump just a few minutes before I appeared on Coast to Coast AM at 1 am Pacific Time, 4 am Eastern.
Trump might even have a long shot chance to win a slightest of edges in the popular vote, but that edge is currently evaporating. Remember, there’s a huge demographic hole in pollster estimations because they can’t robocall cellphone users. So, expect some surprises and I think a late night of election watching.
ASSESSMENT: It’s true; Trump had at first a sizable popular vote when Hillary conceded. Enough for me to declare on Coast that it had ended my popular-vote winning streak for the first time in 48 years. George Noory, the host, cautioned me not to concede that just yet, because many votes were still coming in from California and the West that just might sustain my winning streak to 13 and 0. I went to bed around 2:30 am and woke up at 8 am on Wednesday morning with the popular vote count flipped 189,000 in favor of Clinton.
Trump’s chances at winning the popular vote had “evaporated quickly.”
The big data hole definitely did make for a pollster debacle, yet even now after many days of talking-headed pundit self-searching on the mainstream media about what went wrong, I still haven’t heard them talk about this data hole in cellphone polling. They still don’t understand that a vast majority if people of all economic classes and ages use smartphones as their primary telephone and not landlines.
I certainly could be wrong about the details but I will not be wrong about the outcome in the presidential race. I will say again that Clinton will win this election with as little as inside two percent of the popular vote or as much, but certainly no more, than four percent of the popular vote. No landslide for anyone in this very contentious and close race between the two most unpopular candidates ever to run for office in modern US political history.
ASSESSMENT: I got many of the details wrong, and this is the last time I will stray into flights of predictive fancy confusing my readers with my Electoral College musings. From now on until the day I die, I will keep their eyes on the predictive prize—the popular vote predictions only. So, stripped of all the unnecessary noise that I’m responsible for mixing into this, here’s the prediction I got right: Hillary Clinton won this election—that is, a majority of Americans voted for her “with as little as inside two-percent of the popular vote.” And she certainly didn’t get more than four percent.
In closing I want to sigh in prophetic relief that Hillary Clinton will not be our next president. If she were president, a nuclear confrontation with Russia over Syria and Ukraine would have been highly likely as soon as November 2017.
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That danger is less with Trump but not evaporated. A Trump administration might aim and succeed in negotiating a peaceful and economically positive end to the new cold war with Russia and even work with Russia to defeat ISIS, but he could still pull Russia and the US into a nuclear confrontation over his professed intention to rip up the US peace agreement with Iran. I’m of the view he will definitely threaten such, and watch the Iranians like a hawk for any breaking of the rules.
That’s the “good news.”
Trump will launch his presidency in complete denial of global warming dangers. He will put climate change deniers in positions with the power to defund much needed government financing of scientific research that every day has piled a mountain of evidence proving that humans are dangerously warming the world. Trump could keep America out of a critical world leadership role for four more crucial years before waking up too late.
If Trump is too late, watch leadership for fighting this crisis, and leadership of the world, go to China and remain with China.
Even then, without America’s help another four years passing could take us all beyond a climate change tipping point, launching a cascading acceleration of rising temperatures that undermine sustainability of civilization. Trump missing our last chance, will take the world down into a new, hellishly hot and Dark Age.
On a hopeful note, I did finish my Trump for President book explaining the ways in which our new president can be convinced of the danger, create a whole new industrial base that puts American back to work in what I call an “Arsenal of Ecology.” Trump would be remembered as the next Franklin Delano Roosevelt. His “Arsenal of Democracy” defeated the last great global threat, Hitler and fascism.
Climate Change will be Trump’s most significant challenge. He’ll come to understand that sooner or later. With your help and respectful petitioning, you can help him seize the moment while there’s still time.
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IN THIS BOOK, I PREDICTED HOW HILLARY CLINTON
COULD LOSE THIS ELECTION
OVER A YEAR BEFORE IT HAPPENED
Now more than ever, this is the time to read it and catch a glimpse of the negative and surprisingly positive potentials of a Trump Administration. Click on the cover and buy it with easy one-click purchasing.
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